Southern Fund Yang Delong: stick to blue chip & nb
On Friday, in the "Data shell museum sanibel Visualization" research Tableau software company listed on the first day of gains of 63.7%, while the focus on computing "earnings management services" in the cloud Marketo company listed on the first day of gains more than 77%, by the two stocks Cloud calculation of stocks listed on the first day surge boosted China's "cloud computing" concept stock two days catching shell museum sanibel performance, TRS two consecutive daily limit. In addition, shell museum sanibel the "Fifth China Cloud Computing Conference" will be held in Beijing June 5 to 7, the meeting with a new international perspective, insight into the global cloud computing trends and applications from discusses cloud computing and big data, cloud computing and mobile Internet, cloud security and cloud computing industry applications such as a hot topic, the message of the meeting to be held to stimulate the rise in cloud computing stocks.
Analysts said the United States, depending on the world economy has been in a big data development and information technology development and application in the forefront of the "future of the new oil in the United States have been promoting large data fields of government departments, social institutions, commercial enterprises, research institutions and other applications. China is still in its infancy big data application development, huge complexity of the data exceeds the traditional database system capacity, and therefore requires a specific cloud computing industry to solve the bottleneck of large data development. Shun Securities research report pointed out, 2015 , China's cloud computing industry chain is expected to reach 750 billion to 1 trillion yuan in the strategic emerging industries' share is expected to reach more than 15 percent, cloud computing-related companies will benefit directly.
Robust revenue growth, despite the camp changed to increase shell museum sanibel and the yen had a negative impact on revenue growth. Although shell museum sanibel only a weak macroeconomic recovery, while the ERP industry boom did not rebounded significantly, the company still achieved about 27% of the current revenue growth, mainly due to the abundance of orders shell museum sanibel in hand, but also that the company continued to improve market competitiveness (expressed as market share gains and increased customer benchmarking). In fact, the company's revenue shell museum sanibel growth in Q1 this year negatively affected two aspects: First, the camp changed to increase. Camp changed to increase in Q1 12 is still in the transition period, while 13-year Q1 camp has been completely changed by the execution, which means a greater negative impact on the company's revenue growth in the period by the camp changed to increase the number of; second, weaker yen . In 2012 the company's revenue shell museum sanibel structure, shell museum sanibel outsourcing accounted for about 15%. Since October 2012, the yen has depreciated nearly 25%, for the company has a significant effect on the date of soft outsourcing business growth, and for the impact of the company's overall revenue growth is estimated at around 3% Q1.
Continuing to enhance competitiveness is the core logic, attention and large customers breakthrough capital, maintaining a "buy" rating. Assuming continued equity incentive compensation expense to bring 20 million per year, we maintain our 2013 and 2015 EPS forecast 0.89 yuan, respectively, 1.18 yuan and 1.59 yuan in. The company currently trades at about 26 times 2013 earnings, valuation advantage is not obvious. The company put forward the "appropriate time modest mergers and acquisitions" in a quarterly, means that the company is likely to accelerate capital. At the same time, the expansion of new business areas and large customers may also become a breakthrough company's share price catalysts. We maintain a "buy" rating, and give 26.70 yuan of six-month target price corresponds to about 30 times 2013 earnings.
First quarter revenues remained roughly shell museum sanibel steady with last year, down slightly, amplitude, and then there was a substantial net profit decline, we believe there are two main reasons, one is because the performance of the subsidiary business restructuring and trade-offs resulting from orders shell museum sanibel decline, according to the company's consolidated financial statements and the statements of the parent company can be seen in the first quarter, the parent company shell museum sanibel of a good recovery business, revenue grew 13.62%, outperforming shell museum sanibel the consolidated shell museum sanibel cases; Another shell museum sanibel reason is due to the same period last year doing financial processing mode (last year One quarter of the year accounts receivable Provision rate from 5% to 1%), resulting in an impairment loss of assets compared with the period last year, a big difference exists, thus affecting the company's profit situation. shell museum sanibel
The main point: system integration to enhance the proportion of low profitability. shell museum sanibel Business achieved rapid growth in the company benefited from the rapid rise in the number shell museum sanibel of users in the field of quality control of three power projects, as well as business development in the field of e-government due to good. No increase in interest income in 2012 is mainly due to the company's low-margin systems integration business has made significant increase over last year, in addition to market expansion efforts in 2012 to increase and enhance staff salaries are down to a certain extent the company profitability. From the point of view of orders, the company orders in hand full, advances from customers increased from -2865.29 million a year earlier to 122 million yuan, an increase of 525%. This is mainly eighteen during the progress shell museum sanibel of the project delayed due, we expect most of the extension of last year is expected to be confirmed orders in the first quarter of this year. In addition the company's operating cash flow grew by 41.09 percent, also reflects the company's healthy and positive business trend.
QC EIC project benefited from the rapid expansion of the number of users and enhance the value of the unit Arpu. The company has been dedicated to the import and export trade enterprises to enhance the process of creating value convenience, the company in June last year, China became the only winning side trunk electronic inspection and quarantine system project Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, which is the backbone of the system is the "gold Project "core business system, the project will be the construction of the whole process, the whole business, Inspection and Quarantine of China's electronic shell museum sanibel business system-wide coverage, data and applications centrally manage large national quality inspection system. This company promptly expand market share, explore user needs brought shell museum sanibel important strategic significance. Last year, revenue from the company shell museum sanibel in 2012 in the field of quality control Sanden about 60 million yuan, a slight decline from a year earlier, mainly due to last year the company has increased efforts to promote E-CIQ for inspection of three electricity companies promotion efforts decline, leading to the company's revenue declined. Expected in the third quarter of this year E-CIQ platform construction is completed, with the advantage of building the basic platform, the company is expected to rapidly expand its market share in the electrical engineering field inspection of three, in 2013 the company revenues from inspection EIC project is expected to resume rapid growth. Currently, there are export business users about 100,000, in addition to these users to pay an annual fee for services outside the company, but also for each consignment declared the company to pay an annual fee of $ 5. We expect the number of added electrical engineering inspection three companies will have an annual growth rate of about 40 percent, Arpu value will also serve as the company's three-point inspection platform provides enriched and improved further to rise, initially expected operational inspection Sanden 2013 annual growth rate of more than 50% still maintain standards.
Collaborative management continue to tap the power grid needs to benefit from e-government system of government investment promotion. Company to undertake collaborative management business SG-186 for the company to bring 300 million shell museum sanibel yuan of software orders. National Grid is currently based on SG-186 on the introduction of the SG-ERP project to build wider coverage, integration, shell museum sanibel deeper, smarter, stronger security, better visualization of the new IT infrastructure. Currently Smart Grid-related information technology work are steadily advancing. Including to provide users with interactive services business for the 95598 website, GRS grid spatial information service platform in advance so the construction phase. Unstructured Data Division is currently the main SG-ERP platform business, we expect the business shell museum sanibel software order volume for the company to bring in 200 million yuan or more. E-government shell museum sanibel areas of the company continue cultivating the courts, prosecutors, and environmental protection departments, as a result of these government's own level of information shell museum sanibel is still a large room for improvement, we expect shell museum sanibel this year in the field of e-government can ensure more than 20% growth.
Atmospheric Monitoring Business shell museum sanibel obvious first-mover advantage, businesses lay the foundation for a gold project space. Current highlights air pollution and food safety issues has come to an unprecedented degree, to solve these two issues is an important part of the construction of "Beautiful China", is one of the government's rush to solve this problem. The company in 2010 the construction of the country's air monitoring system (Circle Project Phase I), is expected during the second five investment projects will continue to increase, as the first phase of the project's construction company will benefit from it. The company works from the Circle of orders is expected to continue high growth. Companies with food traceability field QC 40000 Sanden user has mastered more customer shell museum sanibel benefits, the acquisition will help the company Wen Xin Lian industry fully understand food traceability management, production and consumption of the three links of information. Another company in the field of technology shell museum sanibel and platform-gold project there has been a huge strategic reserve, the future does not rule out the acquisition-related things, Internet companies continued to increase their advantage. Three electrical engineering inspection service experience with AQSIQ and other key sectors to build food traceability in, has become an important advantage of the company started in food traceability. In addition, the company last year and the internationally renowned provider CommScope cabling international signed a strategic distribution agreement, CommScope is already the country's top ten international leader in intelligent building cabling manufacturers, the future will continue to benefit from the accelerated construction of intelligent building interior. With the rapid expansion of international CommScope, the company in addition to the expansion of sales volume and market influence through distribution of software products also expand sales channels.
Outsourcing and distribution trend has led to decreased gross margins, cost control achieved initial results. Q1 consolidated gross profit margin of about 84 percent, down about 3.4 percentage points, mainly due to increase the proportion of outsourcing and the increasing influence of business shell museum sanibel change. Because the distribution shell museum sanibel ratio and the proportion increased outsourcing trend in the coming years, we determine gross margins in the coming years there will be continued downward pressure. From the cost situation, the company Q1 sales costs fell 0.2%, while administrative expenses rose 13.5%, two-year total cost of an increase of 5.6%. The company proposed to substantially complete tuning program staff in the second shell museum sanibel quarter in a quarterly, we expect the cost of growth will decline further in subsequent quarters, thus becoming the company's earnings growth of 30% this year, an important safeguard.
Macro fears ease, concerns persist products, to maintain "overweight" rating. We forecast 2013 to 2015 EPS, respectively, to 0.51 yuan, 0.66 yuan and 0.84 yuan. In view of the negative impact on the macroeconomic business has waned, and the company has paid the cost control, we judge the company in 2013 to achieve higher earnings growth probability of recovery. The company is in the platform of the transition period, the product will become the future competitiveness of the most critical factors in determining the company's business prospects. We believe that the success of the transformation platform, can effectively enhance the competitiveness of products require a longer time to observe at this stage investors should maintain a cautious. We maintain an "overweight" investment rating and 12.50 yuan a six-month target price, corresponding to about 25 times 2013 EPS. Company's share price may be the main catalyst for regular reports to verify the performance of the judge to resume growth.
BPO business erupted in 2013 pulled the company's rapid growth. BPO services company after five years of accumulation, crossed the breakeven point in 2012, the head office of the pilot project and has made a number of banks. Client Coverage includes five lines, major banks and a number of local joint-stock commercial banks. The former can provide customers, in the background a comprehensive outsourcing solutions. Has more than 7,000 staff outsourcing, shell museum sanibel among the first echelon. Bank for cost savings, increased market flexibility, access to third-party technologies, to optimize the core competitiveness of other considerations, this year may be in full swing outsourcing, the company is expected to win a concentrated outbreak of BPO services.
Seasonal and revenue recognition leads to slow the annual growth rate of revenue growth than expected. Company Q1 revenue up by 15.6%, less than about 25% of annual revenue growth is expected, but also significantly lower than the company nearly two years, more than 30% growth in order history. Among them, the domestic solutions business revenue grew about 33%; International Software revenues up by about 4% (in US dollars); and medical systems business fell by about 5%. Because of the medical systems business to benefit from the introduction of 64-slice CT growth tends to increase, shell museum sanibel we judge the company Q1 revenue growth was mainly due to lower revenue recognition and seasonal lag, subsequent quarterly revenue growth is expected to significantly enhance the (whole is expected to rise to more than 25%). Depreciation of the yen and Sony and other large customers and other business pressures greater international shell museum sanibel software business shell museum sanibel is subject, in 2013 growth estimate is relatively stable (10-20% in US dollars).
Camp changed to increase the yen and other factors led to a slight decline in gross margin, expense growth during the first three years, less than 20%. Company Q1 consolidated shell museum sanibel gross profit margin of about 29.2%, down about 1.2 percentage shell museum sanibel points. We conclude that the yen and the camp changed to increase the company's gross profit margin decline. From another shell museum sanibel perspective, Q1 yen depreciation of around shell museum sanibel 20% year on year, while the company's gross profit margin shell museum sanibel has not dropped significantly, indicating that the company is more limited depreciation of the yen for the performance of the company, settlement accounting is not high and the yen exchange rate risk-sharing mechanism its underlying causes. Considering the company is trying to change shell museum sanibel the part of the customer's billing currency, we estimate the impact of the yen on the subsequent quarter gross margins tend to be small.
From the cost situation, Q1 company shell museum sanibel two charges grew by about 15%, lower than the 20% growth rate for the first time since 2010Q2. In fact, the company's revenue growth since 2010 steady (minimum 16%), mainly due to poor profitability and rising per capita pay channel expansion resulting decline in gross margin and expenses during the sharp rise. The company in 2013 to emphasize operational excellence, proper control of the pay increase (estimated shell museum sanibel at 10% or less) and the rate of expansion slowed channels. Judging from Q1, the company cost control measures with remarkable results. Order growth in the company's history (2012 orders estimated to have grown more than 30%), a good trend if Q1 cost control to be able to continue throughout the year, the company earnings shell museum sanibel growth in 2013 is entirely possible to exceed shell museum sanibel our expectations. shell museum sanibel
Cost growth fell to enhance earnings growth for 13 years indicates a high probability shell museum sanibel of maintaining long-term "buy" rating. Q1 corporate expenses due to decreased growth in orders from insufficient premises, the company increased earnings growth in 2013 is a high probability event. We forecast 2013 to 2015 EPS was 0.45 yuan, 0.61 yuan and 0.82 yuan. The company currently trades at about 18 times 2013 earnings and 1.15 times the 2013 Urban sales rate. Prudent financial processing system and the revaluation of assets to provide security for the company's current share price higher margin, shell museum sanibel medium and long term, the business layout, channel shell museum sanibel distribution and management systems to support the company in the A-share shell museum sanibel listed companies in the IT services industry, the first to break the magic billion market capitalization Curse become tens or even hundreds of billions of market capitalization of the company. We believe the current share price reflects the profitability shell museum sanibel of long-term upgrade options yet to bring value to maintain the long-term shell museum sanibel "buy" rating, and give 12.68 yuan of six-month shell museum sanibel target price, shell museum sanibel corresponding to about 28 times 2013 earnings and 1.8 times sales ratio. The company's share price may include catalyst system shell museum sanibel integration level qualification special announcement; follow-up report to verify earnings growth continued to improve judgment; health services, such as automotive electronics and mobile Internet business breakthrough new model.
Overall view: 2011 revenue slightly higher than we expected, but less than 10% of our earnings, shell museum sanibel mainly due to the use of 2011
